... -> Assignment 3 - Methane, Steel and Population Growth -> Assignment 3
Homework Submission Form to upload your assignment.
Assignment 3 Questions
- Summarize the reasons that some scientists think there is good
cause for "Runaway Methane Global Warming". Also summarize some
of the past geological evidence for past runaway events (e.g.
methane burps). Finally, conclude whether or not, based on your
research, you think this is a serious concern.
- A little reported but quite serious global infrastructure
problem is the current rate of iron ore/steel usage. Research
and report the growth of China's use of steel (since the year
2000) and the implication that this growth rate has on the
exhaustion timescale of the world's steel supply.
- The table at the bottom shows the population of Oregon counties from 1950 to 2007. You have just been giving a job as resource manager for the state of Oregon, and you need to examine
the population base as a function of county within the state. This is your first day on the job and your boss gives you a bunch of data to distill to answer the following questions:
a) What is the fastest growing county (in terms of percentage not raw population) in Oregon since 1990? b) Using the exponential growth tool and the information in the table below determine the average growth rates from 1985-2007 for the following counties: Jackson, Lane, Marion, Multnomah and Washington. To use the growth tool, simply enter in the years in the X-axis and the population in the Y-Axis and then guess an initial growth rate - adjust the growth rate until you think you get the best fitting line. The slope of that line is the growth rate in units of % per decade.
c) Compare the growth rates from 1970 to 1980 with those from 1980 to 1990 for Lane county. What do you see and do you have an explanation for this result? Now determine the growth rate for Lane County from 1990-2007 and predict the population for Lane County in the year 2025. Comment on the accuracy of this prediction.
Historical Population of Oregon Counties
In units of thousands of people
County 2007 2000 1990 1980 1970 1960 1950 Baker 16.4 16.7 15.3 16.1 14.9 17.3 16.2 Benton 85.3 78.1 70.8 68.2 53.8 39.2 31.5 Clackamas 372 339 278 242 166 113 87 Clatsop 37.4 35.6 33.3 32.5 28.5 27.4 30.8 Columbia 47.6 43.6 37.6 35.6 28.8 22.4 23.0 Coos 63.0 62.7 60.3 64.0 56.5 55.9 42.7 Crook 25.9 19.4 14.1 13.1 10.0 9.4 9.0 Curry 21.5 21.1 19.3 17.0 13.0 14.0 6.0 Deschutes 161 117 75 62 30 23 22 Douglas 105 100 95 94 72 68 55 Gilliam 1.9 1.9 1.7 2.1 2.3 3.1 2.8 Grant 7.6 7.9 7.8 8.2 7.0 7.7 8.3 Harney 7.7 7.6 7.1 8.3 7.2 6.7 6.1 Hood River 21.5 20.5 16.9 15.8 13.2 13.4 12.7 Jackson 202 182 146 132 95 74 59 Jefferson 22.0 19.1 13.7 11.6 8.5 7.1 5.5 Josephine 82 76 63 59 36 30 26 Klamath 66 64 58 59 50 47 42 Lake 7.6 7.4 7.2 7.5 6.3 7.2 6.6 Lane 343 323 284 275 213 163 126 Lincoln 44.6 44.3 38.9 35.3 25.8 24.6 21.3 Linn 109 103 91 89 72 59 54 Malheur 31.6 31.5 26.0 26.9 23.2 22.7 23.2 Marion 311 285 228 205 151 121 101 Morrow 12.3 11.1 7.6 7.5 4.4 4.8 4.8 Multnomah 710 661 584 563 557 522 472 Polk 68 62 50 45 35 27 26 Sherman 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.3 Tillamook 25.8 24.2 21.6 21.1 17.9 18.9 18.6 Umatilla 72 71 59 59 45 44 42 Union 25.2 24.5 23.6 23.9 19.4 18.2 17.9 Wallowa 7.1 7.2 6.9 7.3 6.3 7.1 7.3 Wasco 24.1 23.8 21.7 21.7 20.1 20.2 15.6 Washington 511 448 311 246 158 92 61 Wheeler 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.8 2.7 3.3 Yamhill 93 85 65 55 40 32 33