Assignment 5 Questions
- Research and report on the total power requirements in the Pacific Northwest (in units of MegaWatts). How much of that power is currently
in the form of hydroelectricity. Given what you found in
the previous homework, do you think its feasible to remove these dams and replace that
power with either wind or geothermal?
- Research and report on the Pacific Northwest Climate Index (the PNI) and how variations in that index seem to
strongly correlate with the abundance of salmon in the Columbia river system.
You have been assigned by your company, "Progress 'R Us" to study if there has been a decline in recent years of salmon at the McNary Dam and if there is a mortality rate of fish between The Dalles Dam and the McNary Dam. You have the following raw data from which to work with. When working with data like this, it's best to abbreviate it. So if you enter numbers into the the Tool don't be anal and put in a number of 126555 – just abbreviate that to 126 and remember that the units are thousands. It will save a lot of data entry time.
YEARLY TOTALS OF SALMONIDS COUNTED OVER MCNARY DAM 1954-2002 IN THOUSANDS OF SALMONIDS The Dalles Dam: 1954 311 1955 369 1956 260 1957 487 1958 418 1959 368 1960 331 1961 277 1962 349 1963 331 1964 356 1965 315 1966 550 1967 406 1968 454 1969 374 1970 335 1971 373 1972 335 1973 309 1974 195 1975 204 1976 249 1977 357 1978 218 1979 196 1980 192 1981 173 1982 196 1983 290 1984 354 1985 582 1986 584 1987 508 1988 447 1989 392 1990 291 1991 355 1992 400 1993 304 1994 236 1995 238 1996 270 1997 333 1998 230 1999 240 2000 425 2001 1105 2002 838 McNary Dam 1957 539 1958 537 1959 453 1960 371 1961 355 1962 381 1963 361 1964 379 1965 398 1966 567 1967 554 1968 570 1969 481 1970 462 1971 507 1972 465 1973 444 1974 332 1975 332 1976 346 1977 455 1978 290 1979 276 1980 256 1981 291 1982 331 1983 415 1984 527 1985 769 1986 778 1987 730 1988 642 1989 570 1990 382 1991 426 1992 471 1993 376 1994 288 1995 298 1996 360 1997 426 1998 289 1999 427 2000 678 2001 1425 2002 1141
A. Compute the following for both dams: - The mean and dispersion (standard deviation) for the period 1960 through 1999
- The mean and dispersion for the period 1990 - 1999
- The mean and dispersions for the period 1960 - 1989
From that, establish the following:
Are the counts at each dam in the period of 1990-1999 significantly lower than that seen in the period 1960-1989?
Average the 2001 and 2002 counts together. What is the probability that you would get salmon counts this high, given the mean and dispersion in the period 1960-1999. How might this result change the thinking about the Pacific Northwest Salmon problem?
B. Now look at the data carefully and identify any 5 year periods in which the salmon counts at either dam were statistically low compared to the average count in the 40 year period your derived above. In view of your results, how long of a time baseline should be used to accurately characterize the size of the salmon population in the Columbia River? - The mean and dispersion (standard deviation) for the period 1960 through 1999